Kenneth Rijock

Kenneth Rijock

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

NEW REPORTED HEZBOLLAH OFFENSIVE CAPABILITY INCREASES COUNTRY RISK FOR LEBANON


Multiple authoritative Middler Eastern sources have reported that Hezbollah is now receiving guided warhead technology for its existing missile stocks. The equipment is said to have come from its primary sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This adds a new dimension to the next conflict between Hezbollah and the State of Israel, whose advanced anti-missile systems have coped easily with unguided missile systems, but may not be able to intercept guided missiles with the 90% accuracy seen in the conflict with Hamas, as the trajectory of guided systems cannot be anticipated. Hezbollah may choose to attack Israel, employing its new technology.

In the event that Israel was to sustain major loss of civilian life, and/or destruction of its airport and port facilities, any measured, proportional response would be doubtful, and all Lebanon's infrastructure, including its Beirut international financial center, would probably be targeted, resulting in massive physical damage that could take many months to recover from.  Loss of life would include financial professionals and support staff. The consequences for Country Risk would be almost too high to calculate.

Inasmuch as many observers have opined that Hezbollah of late has become increasingly aggressive in patrolling the border area with Israel, as well as its combat rule in aiding the regime in the Syrian civil war, the risk of another armed conflict with Israel, in 2015 or 2016, should be considered high at this time. Kindly factor all this in when assessing Country Risk for Lebanon.   

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